Growth without optimism as FMCG navigates a cautious consumer era

The FMCG market in 2025 continues to show resilience, with value growth sustained across regions and the Americas remaining ahead overall. Global volumes stay positive but begin to soften toward the end of Q3, particularly in Asia and Latin America.

Inflation has broadly stabilised, creating a more predictable environment for shoppers and brands. Yet consumer confidence, after recovering post-pandemic and post-conflict, has stalled in recent months, mainly due to slower sentiment in the US and Western Europe. Labour markets remain strong almost everywhere except Asia, where unemployment has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Across supercategories, value performance stays positive globally, with volumes contributing more meaningfully outside Foods. Regional patterns differ: Western Europe maintains value growth but faces volume pressure in Foods and Beverages; Latin America shows strong value growth due to inflation but continues to struggle with underlying volumes; and despite low confidence in the US, most supercategories deliver positive value and volume trends. Asia stands out for its stability, marking one of its most balanced years in both measures.

Country-level trends underline this divergence. Most European markets track near long-term value averages, while China sits close to a historical low, driven partly by downtrading—where volume growth does not translate into value. The Netherlands sees pressure from more selective buying, whereas China's shoppers expand their repertoires. Recent volume dynamics vary, with Japan and NL under pressure, stability across France, Germany, the UK and Brazil, and China leading growth.

Private Label shares soften slightly in Western Europe and remain stable in the US, while Latin America reaches a new high from a small base. Spain is the notable exception in Europe, rapidly approaching 50% PL share. Discounters continue to gain traction, with Q3 showing the highest share seen in recent years, supported by strong gains in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.

Looking ahead to Q4 and into 2026, the market is shaped by cautious consumers, easing inflation, and intensifying channel competition. The ability to balance affordability with innovation will be critical as shoppers refine their choices and economic optimism remains fragile.